Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 105.321647 120.564159 137.754659 158.679192 183.595862 212.483873 248.753473
2025-12-28 88.542575 108.764005 133.644477 166.896242 210.762140 267.494524 347.820700
2026-01-04 77.850101 100.667973 130.607753 173.568318 234.980525 321.765594 457.744132
2026-01-11 70.000974 94.274781 127.808347 178.811002 256.805127 375.785303 579.851436
2026-01-18 63.274509 88.103935 123.898520 181.079929 273.748317 424.976390 706.553024
2026-01-25 57.389331 82.187192 119.255173 181.036215 286.401813 469.087400 836.017525
2026-02-01 51.710766 75.805208 112.930418 177.073573 291.386110 500.408159 949.863672
2026-02-08 46.899093 70.177723 107.020473 172.757935 294.679597 528.821343 1065.744867
2026-02-15 42.897089 65.389227 101.863341 168.891944 297.897814 557.369016 1190.413612
2026-02-22 41.866609 65.284039 104.414390 179.020010 329.491277 650.683605 1500.995103
2026-03-01 39.593324 62.858963 102.674892 180.871208 344.730804 712.228738 1755.291218
2026-03-08 37.665782 60.830288 101.388622 183.356402 361.662287 781.696763 2061.403884
2026-03-15 35.401561 58.089064 98.667758 182.919118 372.843800 842.053113 2375.644223
2026-03-22 34.763725 58.188981 101.226836 193.705038 411.982719 985.999406 3048.771490
2026-03-29 33.829214 57.648401 102.486406 201.909547 446.817973 1130.133965 3824.183354
2026-04-05 32.749065 56.727662 102.883238 208.253812 478.436546 1276.204229 4722.807556
2026-04-12 31.388418 55.147242 101.776827 210.992896 501.219743 1403.303710 5647.873623
2026-04-19 29.881046 53.154320 99.617223 210.941711 516.388175 1511.166883 6580.838874
2026-04-26 28.085344 50.453939 95.721338 206.172326 517.165268 1569.543637 7304.736010
2026-05-03 26.407245 47.869661 91.849709 200.982745 515.778313 1620.276192 8042.204137
2026-05-10 24.914292 45.555939 88.365540 196.338257 515.202766 1674.590619 8869.795394
2026-05-17 24.827749 46.115996 91.243441 208.514696 570.292478 1977.221282 11889.938710
2026-05-24 23.999294 45.065570 90.408952 210.743355 593.684312 2157.336022 14277.151004